Fuel price warning: Petrol prices set to jump

A few weeks ago, we developed a predictive tool that suggested Australian average petrol prices largely followed a global oil price trend, albeit with a four-week phase delay.

We created a chart that shows the price of 91RON petrol against a currency-converted $/L of oil value, and added a four-week phase shift to highlight a pattern of rising and falling prices.

Four weeks ago oil prices rose sharply from $US78.72 per barrel to $91.35, an increase of 16 per cent in a week. While prices settled somewhat, they are still moving up.

As this cycle influences what we pay at the pump, we’d suggest filling up now, before the full impact of the oil price increase is felt at your local service station.

Based on our pattern analysis, we’re expecting the price of 91RON to step up to the $2.00 per litre mark, and keep rising. That’s an 8 per cent increase on the current prices of around $1.85 per litre.

Looking at daily prices, the average price for 95RON unleaded in NSW has already jumped $0.04 per litre in just two days. While the other states haven’t exhibited such a change, we’d suggest it is only a matter of time.

The price of 95RON is an average of $0.16 more than 91RON fuel.

As always, we’ll keep an eye on the prices each day, and let you know when we can spot some relief ahead.